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arXiv:1806.02404physics.pop-ph

Dissolving the Fermi Paradox

Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler, Toby Ord

Abstract

The Fermi paradox is the conflict between an expectation of a high {\em ex ante} probability of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe and the apparently lifeless universe we in fact observe. The expectation that the universe should be teeming with intelligent life is linked to models like the Drake equation, which suggest that even if the probability of intelligent life developing at a given site is small, the sheer multitude of possible sites should nonetheless yield a large number of potentially observable civilizations. We show that this conflict arises from the use of Drake-like equations, which implicitly assume certainty regarding highly uncertain parameters. We examine these parameters, incorporating models of chemical and genetic transitions on paths to the origin of life, and show that extant scientific knowledge corresponds to uncertainties that span multiple orders of magnitude. This makes a stark difference. When the model is recast to represent realistic distributions of uncertainty, we find a substantial {\em ex ante} probability of there being no other intelligent life in our observable universe, and thus that there should be little surprise when we fail to detect any signs of it. This result dissolves the Fermi paradox, and in doing so removes any need to invoke speculative mechanisms by which civilizations would inevitably fail to have observable effects upon the universe.

arXiv comments
Submitted to Proceedings of the Royal Society of London A; 4 supplements
Journal reference
DOI
Subjects
physics.pop-phPopular Physics

On Hacker News

Linked by 36 identifiable commenters in 49 comments across 42 threads, from Jun 2018 to Jan 2026. Found in 12 HN submissions from Jun 2018 to Sep 2026. Open submission discussions.

Comments linking this paper, per year.

Discussed in comments42 threads

  1. SETI@home is in hiberation 1 comment
  2. Earth was born dry until a cosmic collision made it a blue planet 1 comment

    • One approach is to give each variable a probability distribution. The greater our uncertainty about possible values, the wider the bell curve. Drexler and colleagues did that, and found "a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our…

      DennisPView on HNParent context

  3. “Most promising signs yet” of alien life on a planet beyond our Solar System 1 comment

    • One problem with the Fermi paradox is that the Drake equation simply multiplies expected values together without regard to the underlying distributions. You can think about it this way: what if the actual mechanisms of the evolution of life result in there being a very high…

      n4r9View on HNParent context

  4. Laser Launch into Orbit 1 comment
  5. Show HN: Unsure Calculator – back-of-a-napkin probabilistic calculator 1 comment

    • This is neat! If you enjoy the write up, you might be interested in the paper “Dissolving the Fermi Paradox” which goes even more on-depth into actually multiplying the probability density functions instead of the common point estimates. It has the somewhat surprising result…

      OisinMoranView on HNParent context

  6. SETI's hard steps and how to resolve them 2 comments

    • In this case the Copernican principle is at odds with the anthropic principle. If there were only one place in the universe with intelligent life, then necessarily that's where we would be. GP may be thinking of this paper, which uses a reasonable probability distribution for…

      DennisPView on HNParent context

    • Actually the Drake equation may not say that: > When we take account of realistic uncertainty, replacing point estimates by probability distributions that reflect current scientific understanding, we find no reason to be highly confident that the galaxy (or observable universe)…

      DennisPView on HNParent context

  7. Phenomenal consciousness is alien to us: SETI and the Fermi paradox 1 comment
  8. Webb captures iconic Horsehead Nebula in unprecedented detail 1 comment
  9. Epitaph – Fermi Paradox Simulator 1 comment

    • My answer is that the values we multiply are too uncertain to give meaningful prediction [1] [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404

      EvgeniyZhView on HNParent context

  10. Laniakea Supercluster 1 comment

    • This question has been (very unsatisfyingly) answered, or at least resolved: > When the model is recast to represent realistic distributions of uncertainty, we find a substantial probability of there being no other intelligent life in our observable universe, and thus that there…

      blfrView on HNParent context

  11. Planning for AGI and Beyond 1 comment

    • What about the scenario that Humans are the First ? Once-in-a-galaxy rare (more like once in a visible universe rare; see: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf ) The more I understand how we got life from chemicals (it truly is nothing short of miraculous, even if you like I do…

      GeorgeTirebiterView on HNParent context

  12. The Fermi paradox revisited: Technosignatures and the contact era 1 comment

    • Perhaps I'm missing something, but this seems to get the Fermi Paradox backwards. It explains why we haven't been visited by aliens (the light-cone of our radio transmissions is small and therefore aliens outside of it couldn't send probes to us), but the key observation of the…

      theptipView on HNParent context

  13. Grabby Aliens: A Resolution to the Fermi Paradox 1 comment

    • > If life on Earth had to achieve n “hard steps” to reach humanity’s level, then the chance of this event rose as time to the n-th power. Sounds like a somewhat simplistic model? Compare with this recent paper that actually analyzes the individual genetic evolution steps…

      theptipView on HNParent context

  14. Galactic settlement of low-mass stars as a resolution to the Fermi paradox 1 comment
  15. Mars rover detects carbon signature that may hint at past life source 1 comment

    • "Dissolving the Fermi Paradox": https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404 >The expectation that the universe should be teeming with intelligent life is linked to models like the Drake equation, which suggest that even if the probability of intelligent life developing at a given site is…

      floxyView on HNParent context

  16. Alien hunters have spent 60 years finding new solutions for the Drake Equation 1 comment

    • We flipped a coin, and it ended up being heads (just us), meh... Nothing more to it: https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf I believe the TLDR of that is, if you monte carlo the drake equation, and account for the uncertainty of the error margins, you don't really end up with much…

      jordoView on HNParent context

  17. How to replace estimations and guesses with a Monte Carlo simulation 1 comment
  18. Beyond “Fermi’s Paradox” XVI: What Is the “Dark Forest” Hypothesis? 2 comments

    • One paper on the Fermi Paradox I want to plug is this one by Sandberg, Drexler, and Ord. https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404 Most people when doing the Fermi estimate for the number of civilizations in the Galaxy use numbers that tend to result in a lot of them. But different…

      SymmetryView on HNParent context

    • I guess this is the paper you're talking about: https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404

      taejoView on HNParent context

  19. Milky Way not unusual, astronomers find 1 comment

    • Under some models, there’s a non-negligible chance that humans are atypical. See this paper by Sanders, Drexler, and Ord, for instance. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf

      nimithrynView on HNParent context

  20. 60 years later, is it time to update the Drake equation? 1 comment

    • Dissolving the Fermi Paradox[0] is a great and easy to read paper to disabuse anyone of the idea of multiplying point estimates when you could convolve probability distributions instead. [0] https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404

      the8472View on HNParent context

  21. Grabby Aliens 1 comment

    • The Fermi Paradox is not real if you consider the massive uncertainty we have on the parameters of the Drake equation: https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404

      TTProgramsView on HNParent context

  22. Once we can see them, it’s too late 1 comment

    • An interesting paper that I don't see brought up often enough is "Dissolving the Fermi Paradox" by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler and Toby Ord[0]. They show that it isn't a surprise that we are alone in the universe if we consider the uncertainty inherent to parameters of the…

      PazzazView on HNParent context

  23. Have we already been visited by aliens? 1 comment
  24. The Great Filter – Are We Almost Past It? (1998) 2 comments

    • The Fermi Paradox has essentially been resolved: https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404 This explanation is much more plausible than a Great Filter. Here's a great comment summarizing the argument very intuitively: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17562439 I also found this one…

      shiftingleftView on HNParent context

    • Dissolving the Fermi Paradox by Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler, Toby Ord > "This result dissolves the Fermi paradox, and in doing so removes any need to invoke speculative mechanisms by which civilizations would inevitably fail to have observable effects upon the universe"…

      yborisView on HNParent context

  25. A Statistical Estimate of Extraterrestrial Intelligence in the Milky Way Galaxy 1 comment

    • i hear this argument constantly, but i've never been able to understand it. you say the universe is big and has existed for a long time, but compared to what? if i say the universe is small and new, how would you counter that? i don't mean to come across as aggressive, but if…

      disconcisionView on HNParent context

  26. Aliens Likely Annihilated Themselves Through Progress 1 comment

    • When realistic distributions of uncertainty are applied to the Drake Equation, the paradox dissolves: https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404

      hindsightbiasView on HNParent context

  27. First Evidence of a Planet in Another Galaxy 2 comments

    • https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404

      the8472View on HNParent context

    • Because there are a lot of other things necessary for life. Usually we get the 'planet X may be suitable for life' PR news item first, and later in the scientific press we find out quietly 'planet X is awash in deadly gamma radiation, and the tectonics are such that there's a…

      yyykView on HNParent context

  28. Lattice Confinement Fusion 1 comment

    • I agree with much else said here about the failure -> crank -> taboo problem, but it bears noting that the Fermi paradox is not really a paradox. There is this https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404 . The 2 minute layman's version is that multiplying several to many very uncertain…

      cb321View on HNParent context

  29. Phosphine detected in the atmosphere of Venus – an indicator of possible life? 1 comment

    • The Great Filter isn't a thing! There is no Fermi paradox! The Drake equation is malformed; multiplying expected values is a bad way to combine probability distributions. https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404

      jtoldsView on HNParent context

  30. Odds of communicating with 36 other possible intelligent civilizations are small 1 comment

    • Only providing averages is crazy given the huge variance of the underlying factors. https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404

      the8472View on HNParent context

  31. Growing Anomalies at the Large Hadron Collider Raise Hopes 1 comment

    • Apparently there is also a easy solution to the Fermi paradox by taking the uncertainty in the Drake parameters into account: https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404 "We examine these parameters, incorporating models of chemical and genetic transitions on paths to the origin of life…

      IngoBlechschmidView on HNParent context

  32. Timeline of the Far Future 1 comment

    • You may have seen this resolution to the Fermi Paradox, but if not I thought I'd post it: https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404 "The Fermi paradox is the conflict between an expectation of a high {\em ex ante} probability of intelligent life elsewhere in the universe and the…

      pmohunView on HNParent context

  33. Japan to Draw Up UFO Encounter Protocols After U.S. Footage 1 comment

    • “When we update this prior in light of the Fermi observation, we find a substantial probability that we are alone in our galaxy, and perhaps even in our observable universe (53%–99.6% and 39%–85% respectively). ’Where are they?’ — probably extremely far away, and quite possibly…

      hindsightbiasView on HNParent context

  34. Planetary 'autopsies' indicate worlds like Earth common in the cosmos 2 comments

    • We don't know. The confidence intervals on individual probability distributions are already wide and long-tailed but convolving them only makes the problem worse. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf

      the8472View on HNParent context

    • And the year before that gave us Dissolving the Fermi paradox[1], which conclusively shows that the drake equation is not worth the napkin it's written on. tl;dr: It is possible for both of the following statements to be true at the same time: (1) The Drake equation gives a true…

      Tuna-FishView on HNParent context

  35. Deterministic thinking: a problem in how we think, not just in how we act 1 comment

    • Some additional examples of people fixing instances of this problem Dissolving the fermi paradox[0], convolves distributions instead of multiplying point estimates of life/no life. How to NOT measure latency, looks at CDFs instead of slow/fast thresholds. [0]…

      the8472View on HNParent context

  36. End-User Probabilistic Programming [pdf] 2 comments

    • Moving from point estimates to distributions is great progress. It reminds me of this great paper that highlights how much information we're losing when we're only looking at means or assume everything is normally distributed. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf

      the8472View on HNParent context

    • Abstract link: Sandberg, Drexler, and Ord - Dissolving the Fermi paradox (https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404).

      JadeNBView on HNParent context

  37. Galaxy Simulations Offer a New Solution to the Fermi Paradox 2 comments

    • The problem with the drake equation is that we're not really working with means of normal distributions as estimates, we're working with wildly different, skewed distributions for each factor, due to uncertainties spanning orders of magnitude for some factors. Instead of…

      the8472View on HNParent context

    • Right. This has been my preferred solution to the paradox as well, for the last several years. More and more evidence seems to point towards the Drake Equation simply not sufficiently accounting for uncertainty [1]. There are a few planets and moons in our system that have or…

      thaumaturgyView on HNParent context

  38. Dark Motives and Elective Use of Brainteaser Interview Questions 1 comment
  39. Why we downplay Fermi’s paradox 1 comment

    • This is handwaving at best. Here's a more rigorous argument that was published recently: Dissolving the Fermi Paradox https://arxiv.org/abs/1806.02404

      skybrianView on HNParent context

  40. Ask HN: Is there any credible evidence for ET intelligent life? 1 comment

    • It depends on your definition of "intelligent life", but if you're talking about a life form that we, humans could observe and interact with using our few senses then I'm afraid that the answer is "no". Anders Sandberg, Eric Drexler and Toby Ord recently published a paper that…

      ndethoreView on HNParent context

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