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arXiv:1804.03748astro-ph.EP

The Silurian Hypothesis: Would it be possible to detect an industrial civilization in the geological record?

Gavin A. Schmidt, Adam Frank

Abstract

If an industrial civilization had existed on Earth many millions of years prior to our own era, what traces would it have left and would they be detectable today? We summarize the likely geological fingerprint of the Anthropocene, and demonstrate that while clear, it will not differ greatly in many respects from other known events in the geological record. We then propose tests that could plausibly distinguish an industrial cause from an otherwise naturally occurring climate event.

arXiv comments
Accepted for publication in the International Journal of Astrobiology
Journal reference
DOI
doi:10.1017/S1473550418000095
Subjects
astro-ph.EPEarth and Planetary Astrophysics

On Hacker News

Linked by 13 identifiable commenters in 13 comments across 12 threads, from Jun 2019 to Nov 2024. Found in 8 HN submissions from Apr 2018 to Jul 2025. Open submission discussions.

Comments linking this paper, per year.

Discussed in comments12 threads

  1. The Silurian Hypothesis 1 comment
    • The Silurian Hypothesis: Would it be possible to detect an industrial civilization in the geological record? (2019) https://arxiv.org/pdf/1804.03748

      mncharityView on HNParent context

    • If they were as advanced as we are now, we would have seen that the atmospheric CO2 levels had been higher back then, no? This paper draws the conclusions that such a civilization would be visible in the geological record. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.03748

      noslenwerdnaView on HNParent context

    • The concept of prior industrial civilizations was explored in a 2018 paper https://arxiv.org/pdf/1804.03748. If you exclude industry, it could be exceedingly improbable that we would find fossil evidence of such creatures unless the species existed for several million years.

      lumostView on HNParent context

    • That's a question in geology and archaeology called the Silurian Hypothesis: Could we even detect a millions-of-years old civilization in the geological record? 1. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.03748

      VHRangerView on HNParent context

    • I recommend Schmidt and Frank’s article on the Silurian hypothesis [1] for a surprisingly different take on this. The full text is on arXiv [2]. “We summarize the likely geological fingerprint of the Anthropocene, and demonstrate that while clear, it will not differ greatly in…

      sjyView on HNParent context

  2. Who Invented the Alphabet? 1 comment
    • Depends how long dead we’re talking about. You might like this paper[1] which asks what evidence would be left if there had been a pre-human industrial civilisation. [1] https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.03748

      aardvark179View on HNParent context

  3. Lost Advanced Civilizations 2 comments
    • https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.03748 If an industrial civilization had existed on Earth many millions of years prior to our own era, what traces would it have left and would they be detectable today? We summarize the likely geological fingerprint of the Anthropocene, and demonstrate…

      hprotagonistView on HNParent context

    • You mean like https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/04/are-we-e... which links to https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.03748 ?

      LargoLasskhyfvView on HNParent context

    • "We name the hypothesis after a 1970 episode of the British science fiction TV series Doctor Who" - The Silurian Hypothesis: Would it be possible to detect an industrial civilization in the geological record? https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.03748

      mklView on HNParent context

    • Most likely it is nonsense. The carbon and nitrogen composition of sedimentary layers will show anomalies in case of intelligent civilizations. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1804.03748.pdf

      namirezView on HNParent context

    • Yes, this has been investigated before - e.g. https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.03748 https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/04/are-we-e... But the evidence we have (as per prior comments) is that a human-level intelligence civilisation has arisen only once on Earth.

      mellosoulsView on HNParent context

    • Maybe it was this? Gavin A. Schmidt, Adam Frank: The Silurian Hypothesis: Would it be possible to detect an industrial civilization in the geological record?, https://arxiv.org/abs/1804.03748 I found it through an article in The Atlantic that may or may not have been linked on…

      heskView on HNParent context

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