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arXiv:1705.08807cs.AI

When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts

Katja Grace, John Salvatier, Allan Dafoe, Baobao Zhang, Owain Evans

Abstract

Advances in artificial intelligence (AI) will transform modern life by reshaping transportation, health, science, finance, and the military. To adapt public policy, we need to better anticipate these advances. Here we report the results from a large survey of machine learning researchers on their beliefs about progress in AI. Researchers predict AI will outperform humans in many activities in the next ten years, such as translating languages (by 2024), writing high-school essays (by 2026), driving a truck (by 2027), working in retail (by 2031), writing a bestselling book (by 2049), and working as a surgeon (by 2053). Researchers believe there is a 50% chance of AI outperforming humans in all tasks in 45 years and of automating all human jobs in 120 years, with Asian respondents expecting these dates much sooner than North Americans. These results will inform discussion amongst researchers and policymakers about anticipating and managing trends in AI.

arXiv comments
Accepted by Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research (AI and Society Track). Minor update to refer to related work (page 5)
Journal reference
DOI
Subjects
cs.AIArtificial Intelligence cs.CYComputers and Society

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Linked by 3 identifiable commenters in 4 comments across 3 threads, from May 2017 to Mar 2021. Found in 2 HN submissions from May 2017 to May 2017. Open submission discussions.

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Discussed in comments3 threads

  1. Multimodal Neurons in Artificial Neural Networks 1 comment

    • Note that a very significant fraction do believe human level machine intelligence is likely within about 50 years, and a good few on closer timescales, though the precise numbers are endlessly debatable. Two major AI corporations, DeepMind and OpenAI, are explicitly aiming to…

      VeedracView on HNParent context

  2. There's No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence 1 comment

    • If the article's main claim was "AGI is imminent", that would be a valid criticism. But it isn't (as the article says explicitly). The main claim is that technological progress is hard to forecast in general, especially for those not personally at the cutting edge of the field…

      apsec112View on HNParent context

  3. AlphaGo's next move 2 comments

    • Modern AI, things like AlphaGo are examples of applied AI. "Common sense" falls within the realm of artificial general intelligence, which is a line of research that's largely abandoned now in favor of applied AI. Modern AI solutions are engineered to solve very very specific…

      computerexView on HNParent context

    • Nope, not at all. Like I said, we have had autonomous vehicles operating in normal traffic for decades now. Autonomous vehicles do not require AGI, far from it. Waymo, Uber, Tesla and more are all competing to bring autonomous vehicles to the mass consumer market and indeed most…

      computerexView on HNParent context

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