When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts · HackerPapers discussions

When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts — mentioned by Veedrac

Fri, 05 Mar 2021 01:05:55 GMT

Note that a very significant fraction do believe human level machine intelligence is likely within about 50 years, and a good few on closer timescales, though the precise numbers are endlessly debatable. Two major AI corporations, DeepMind and OpenAI, are explicitly aiming to create AGI. https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOJ1NVtlnyQ

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When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts — mentioned by apsec112

Sat, 14 Oct 2017 08:12:08 GMT

If the article's main claim was "AGI is imminent", that would be a valid criticism. But it isn't (as the article says explicitly). The main claim is that technological progress is hard to forecast in general, especially for those not personally at the cutting edge of the field, and that almost no one right now is even really trying. Therefore, we should be very uncertain about AGI timelines. There's plenty of historical evidence, both in this article and elsewhere, to back up those claims. (edit: I think your point about Winograd as a binary task not being explained clearly is valid, but…

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When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts — mentioned by computerex

Sun, 28 May 2017 04:07:18 GMT

Nope, not at all. Like I said, we have had autonomous vehicles operating in normal traffic for decades now. Autonomous vehicles do not require AGI, far from it. Waymo, Uber, Tesla and more are all competing to bring autonomous vehicles to the mass consumer market and indeed most estimates claim that we'll have autonomous trucks by 2027: https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807 I hate how everyone thinks they know enough to talk about AI because it's so buzzy/trendy right now. Modern AI is not pretending to be AGI. No one is claiming to be going for AGI, and whatever successes we have been seeing…

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When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts — mentioned by computerex

Sat, 27 May 2017 17:27:24 GMT

Modern AI, things like AlphaGo are examples of applied AI. "Common sense" falls within the realm of artificial general intelligence, which is a line of research that's largely abandoned now in favor of applied AI. Modern AI solutions are engineered to solve very very specific problems. You are never going to see attempts to teach "common sense". https://arxiv.org/abs/1705.08807 With that said, the above is what the world's AI researchers think is possible hopefully within my lifetime using just applied AI without the notion of "common sense". Common sense is AGI. That's not the goal anymore.…

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When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts — HN submission

Thu, 25 May 2017 11:36:11 GMT

When Will Machines Exceed Human Performance? Survey of ML Researchers.

45 points; 50 discussion replies on HN. Paper and source history. A submission is not an endorsement.

When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts — HN submission

Thu, 25 May 2017 03:07:22 GMT

When Will AI Exceed Human Performance? Evidence from AI Experts

5 points; 0 discussion replies on HN. Paper and source history. A submission is not an endorsement.