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arXiv:1105.1486cs.DC

Estimating Bernoulli trial probability from a small sample

Norman D. Megill, Mladen Pavicic

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Abstract

The standard textbook method for estimating the probability of a biased coin from finite tosses implicitly assumes the sample sizes are large and gives incorrect results for small samples. We describe the exact solution, which is correct for any sample size.

arXiv comments
4 pages
Journal reference
DOI
Subjects
cs.DCDistributed, Parallel, and Cluster Computing math.PRProbability stat.COComputation (Statistics)

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  1. Estimating the chances of something that hasn’t happened yet 1 comment

    • I wouldn't use a probability density of typo's per page, but instead the probability that a word is spelled wrong. Then it's like drawing marbles from a vase containing an unknown proportion of blue and red marbles. I would use the formula (M+1)/(N+2) where N is the number of…

      DoctorOetkerView on HNParent context

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