Estimating Bernoulli trial probability from a small sample — mentioned by DoctorOetker

Fri, 16 Nov 2018 11:31:02 GMT

I wouldn't use a probability density of typo's per page, but instead the probability that a word is spelled wrong. Then it's like drawing marbles from a vase containing an unknown proportion of blue and red marbles. I would use the formula (M+1)/(N+2) where N is the number of words, and M is the number of mistakes. Note that for a large corpus (M+1)/(N+2) approaches -> M/N, so we recover the frequentist probability. Also note the author (John D Cook) correctly expresses intuitive doubt that 0 typos / 20 pages can not be construed as certainty of no mistakes. Similarily, seeing a mistake in…

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Estimating Bernoulli trial probability from a small sample · HackerPapers discussions

Estimating Bernoulli trial probability from a small sample — mentioned by DoctorOetker