Quantifying AI data center nitrogen oxide (NO$_x$) emissions from space

Abstract

AI data center power demand is spurring rapid deployment of on- and near-site natural gas turbines. The resulting nitrogen oxide NO$_x$ pollution is a growing concern but has not previously been quantified with atmospheric observations. Here we demonstrate space-based detection and quantification of NO$_x$ emissions from the SpaceXAI Colossus 2 power plant in Southaven, Mississippi. Using observations from the geostationary TEMPO satellite instrument, we detect a strong increase in local mean NO$_2$ column concentrations after the plant began operations in late 2025. We then use TEMPO to estimate two-week-average NO$_x$ source rates from August 2025 to August 2026, calibrating against continuous emission monitoring system (CEMS) data from US power plants. TEMPO first detected NO$_x$ emissions in December 2025 at 530$\pm$220 kg h$^{-1}$. We find that emissions increased through August 2026, averaging 870$\pm$165 kg h$^{-1}$ after February 2026, roughly 19$\pm$4 times higher than expected from the facility's March 2026 permit for 41 turbines operating under best available control technology (BACT) requirements ($\sim$47 kg h$^{-1}$). Emissions at the expected level would be undetectable by our TEMPO analysis.