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arXiv:2606.19777physics.soc-ph

Have Data Centers Raised Your Electric Bill? Causal Evidence from the United States

Asa Watten, John Bistline, Geoffrey Blanford

Abstract

We estimate that data centers caused average retail electricity rates to fall modestly in the United States from 2015 to 2024 using an instrumental variables approach. Despite prevailing sentiment, the finding is consistent with economic reasoning: existing large power system fixed costs, economies of scale in transmission and distribution, and declining unit costs for generation imply that durable demand growth lowers average prices. We find patterns of economies of scale for transmission, distribution, and generation costs as well as within and across retail customer classes. We caution that future supply constraints could reverse the effect.

arXiv comments
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DOI
Subjects
physics.soc-phPhysics and Society econ.GNGeneral Economics

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Linked by 2 identifiable commenters in 2 comments across 2 threads, from Aug 2026 to Sep 2026. Found in 1 HN submission from Jun 2026 to Jun 2026. Open submission discussions.

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Discussed in comments2 threads

  1. 'People are going to get screwed' Pennsylvania voters unite against data centres 1 comment

    • I suspect the authors of this paper would like to hear out your evidence for increasing energy prices https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.19777 In the United States at least there's been plenty of polling on why people oppose data centers. Consistently, it's water usage and water…

      lordgilmanView on HNParent context

  2. Field measurements of neighborhood-scale air temperature impacts of data centers 1 comment

    • Neither did the data centers. Datacenters use less than 5% of US electricity. https://arxiv.org/abs/2606.19777

      pnwView on HNParent context

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