AI-exposed jobs deteriorated before ChatGPT

Abstract

Public debate links worsening job prospects for AI-exposed occupations to the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. Using monthly U.S. unemployment insurance records, we measure occupation- and location-specific unemployment risk and find that risk rose in AI-exposed occupations beginning in early 2022, months before ChatGPT was released. Analyzing millions of LinkedIn profiles, we show that graduate cohorts from 2021 onward entered AI-exposed jobs at lower rates than earlier cohorts, with gaps opening before late 2022. Finally, from millions of university syllabi, we find that graduates taking more LLM-exposed curricula had shorter job searches after ChatGPT and higher first-job pay when entering highly exposed occupations. Together, these results---pointing to forces pre-dating generative AI and to the ongoing value of LLM-relevant education---suggest that generative AI may not be the root cause of these labor market hardships and that the launch of ChatGPT is a faulty natural experiment for understanding AI's impact on jobs.