An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions

Abstract

The number of objects in orbit is rapidly increasing, primarily driven by the launch of megaconstellations, an approach to satellite constellation design that involves large numbers of satellites paired with their rapid launch and disposal, as well as the overall proliferation of satellite systems. While satellites provide many benefits to society, their use comes with challenges, including the growth of space debris, collision risks, ground casualty risks, optical and radio-spectrum pollution, and the alteration of Earth's upper atmosphere through rocket emissions and reentry ablation. There is potential for current or planned actions in orbit to cause serious degradation of the orbital environment or lead to catastrophic outcomes, highlighting the urgent need to find better ways to quantify stress on the orbital environment. Here we propose a new metric, the CRASH Clock, that measures such stress in terms of the timescale for a possible catastrophic collision to occur if there are no satellite maneuvers or there is a severe loss in situational awareness. Our calculations show that the CRASH Clock is 5.5 days as of June 2025 and continues to decrease, which suggests there is limited time to recover from a wide-spread disruptive event, such as a solar storm. This is in stark contrast to the pre-megaconstellation era: in 2018, the CRASH Clock was 164 days.