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arXiv:2509.22602astro-ph.EP

Small Near-Earth Objects in the Taurid Resonant Swarm

Quanzhi Ye, Jasmine Li, Denis Vida, David L. Clark, Eric C. Bellm

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Abstract

The Taurid Resonant Swarm (TRS) within the Taurid Complex hosts dynamically-concentrated debris in a 7:2 mean-motion resonance with Jupiter. Fireball observations have confirmed that the TRS is rich in sub-meter-sized particles, but whether this enhancement extends to larger, asteroid-sized objects remains unclear. Here we reanalyze the data obtained by a Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF) campaign during the 2022 TRS encounter, and find that the TRS may host up to $\sim10^2$ Tunguska-sized objects and up to $\sim10^3$ Chelyabinsk-sized objects, the latter of which agrees the estimate derived from bolide records. This translates to an impact frequency of less than once every 4 million years. However, we caution that these numbers are based on the unverified assumption that the orbital distribution of the TRS asteroids follows that of fireball-sized meteoroids. Future wide-field facilities, such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory, could take advantage of TRS's close approaches in the 2020-30s and validate the constraints of the asteroid-sized objects in the TRS.

arXiv comments
Accepted for publication on Acta Astronautica, PDC 2025 Special Issue
Journal reference
DOI
Subjects
astro-ph.EPEarth and Planetary Astrophysics

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