Population change, age structure, and socio-economic performance

Abstract

Concerns about declining or ageing populations often centre on the possibility that fewer people or older age structures could weaken economies, strain fiscal systems, and reduce living standards. However, population change reflects multiple demographic processes, including fertility, mortality, and migration, and its relationship with socio-economic performance depends on capital accumulation, human capital, productivity, institutions, and policy responses. We examine national data at the global scale to test whether, and to what extent, overall population growth or older population age structures are associated with economic and social outcomes using hybrid machine-learning approaches. Across nine indices of socio-economic performance, we find no evidence that slower-growing or older populations perform worse on average. Instead, countries with low or negative overall population growth and older age structures often have higher values for many indicators, and within-country time series show similar broad patterns for most responses. Our results suggest that demographic change is not inevitably associated with socio-economic decline, and that further research is needed to identify the institutional, economic, policy, and demographic mechanisms underlying these global patterns.