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arXiv:2507.01993math.HO

Finding good bets in the lottery, and why you shouldn't take them

Aaron Abrams, Skip Garibaldi

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Abstract

We give a criterion under which the expected return on a ticket for certain large lotteries is positive. In this circumstance, we use elementary portfolio analysis to show that an optimal investment strategy includes a very small allocation for such tickets.

arXiv comments
This is the second of eleven old articles being uploaded to arxiv after publication
Journal reference
American Mathematical Monthly, vol. 117 no. 1 (2010), pp. 3-26
DOI
Subjects
math.HOHistory and Overview math.PRProbability q-fin.STStatistical Finance

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