Atmospheric Predictability Beyond 30 Days with Machine Learning

Abstract

Atmospheric predictability research has long held that rapid error growth at small spatial scales imposes an intrinsic limit of roughly two weeks on deterministic weather forecast skill. We challenge this limit using GraphCast, a machine-learning weather model, by optimizing initial conditions for twice-daily forecasts spanning 2020. This approach yields an average error reduction of 86% at ten days relative to control forecasts from reanalysis initial conditions, with skill lasting beyond 30 days. Mean optimal initial-condition perturbations reveal large-scale, spatially coherent corrections primarily reflecting an intensification of the Hadley circulation. Forecasts using GraphCast-optimal initial conditions in the Pangu-Weather model achieve a 21% error reduction, peaking at four days, indicating that analysis corrections reflect adjustments that target both model and analysis error. These results demonstrate the existence of initial conditions producing skillful deterministic forecasts far beyond two weeks. Whether such initial conditions can be identified in real-time for improving operational weather forecasts remains a topic of future research.