A Comprehensive Reanalysis of K2-18 b's JWST NIRISS+NIRSpec Transmission Spectrum

Abstract

Sub-Neptunes are the most common type of planet in our galaxy. Interior structure models suggest that the coldest sub-Neptunes could host liquid water oceans underneath their hydrogen envelopes -- sometimes called ``hycean'' planets. JWST transmission spectra of the $\sim$ 250 K sub-Neptune K2-18 b were recently used to report detections of CH$_4$ and CO$_2$, alongside weaker evidence of (CH$_3$)$_2$S (dimethyl sulfide, or DMS). Atmospheric CO$_2$ was interpreted as evidence for a liquid water ocean, while DMS was highlighted as a potential biomarker. However, these notable claims were derived using a single data reduction and retrieval modeling framework, which did not allow for standard robustness tests. Here we present a comprehensive reanalysis of K2-18 b's JWST NIRISS SOSS and NIRSpec G395H transmission spectra, including the first analysis of the second-order NIRISS SOSS data. We incorporate multiple well-tested data reduction pipelines and retrieval codes, spanning 60 different data treatments and over 250 atmospheric retrievals. We confirm the detection of CH$_4$ ($\approx 4σ$), with a volume mixing ratio range $-2.14 \leq \log_{10} \mathrm{CH_4} \leq -0.53$, but we find no statistically significant or reliable evidence for CO$_2$ or DMS. Finally, we assess the retrieved atmospheric composition using photochemical-climate and interior models, demonstrating that our revised composition of K2-18\,b can be explained by an oxygen-poor mini-Neptune without requiring a liquid water surface or life.