Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models · HackerPapers discussions

Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models — HN submission

Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:59:28 GMT

Show HN: Ask LLMs to predict anything based on news

Hi HN! We partnered with the Atlas team to build a tool called AI Predict [0] that allows anyone to ask any question about the future and get a thoroughly researched, AI-generated prediction on how likely it is to be true. How it works: Atlas replicated a Berkeley paper [1] that showed LLMs could make predictions as accurate as the crowd. We’re using a mix of models from OpenAI and Anthropic, with information retrieval powered by NewsCatcher [2]. The system is live and fully functional, though it might struggle with hyper-local questions outside of the public domain (e.g., “Will I have…

25 points; 9 discussion replies on HN. Paper and source history. A submission is not an endorsement.

Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models — HN submission

Thu, 04 Apr 2024 17:57:37 GMT

Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models

3 points; 0 discussion replies on HN. Paper and source history. A submission is not an endorsement.

Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models — HN submission

Fri, 01 Mar 2024 16:02:03 GMT

Approaching Human-Level Forecasting with Language Models

2 points; 0 discussion replies on HN. Paper and source history. A submission is not an endorsement.