arXiv:2308.02950cs.AI
A criterion for Artificial General Intelligence: hypothetic-deductive reasoning, tested on ChatGPT
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Abstract
We argue that a key reasoning skill that any advanced AI, say GPT-4, should master in order to qualify as 'thinking machine', or AGI, is hypothetic-deductive reasoning. Problem-solving or question-answering can quite generally be construed as involving two steps: hypothesizing that a certain set of hypotheses T applies to the problem or question at hand, and deducing the solution or answer from T - hence the term hypothetic-deductive reasoning. An elementary proxy of hypothetic-deductive reasoning is causal reasoning. We propose simple tests for both types of reasoning, and apply them to ChatGPT. Our study shows that, at present, the chatbot has a limited capacity for either type of reasoning, as soon as the problems considered are somewhat complex. However, we submit that if an AI would be capable of this type of reasoning in a sufficiently wide range of contexts, it would be an AGI.
I used to help build the CTFs for BSides Orlando. I ended up moving to another con, and at our last event we collected extensive logging for post mortem analysis. We found that AI usage is basically guaranteed now, but certain challenge designs did thwart it. Challenges built…
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