Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely · HackerPapers discussions

Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely — mentioned by tedsanders

Tue, 15 Jul 2025 20:58:46 GMT

Not the author, but I work at OpenAI. There are wide variety of viewpoints and it's fine for employees to disagree on timelines and impact. I myself published a 100-page paper on why I think transformative AGI by 2043 is quite unlikely (https://arxiv.org/abs/2306.02519). From informal discussion, I think the vast majority of employees don't think that we're mere years from a post-scarcity utopia where we can drink mai tais on the beach all day. But there is a lot of optimism about the rapid progress in AI, and I do think that it's harder to forecast the path of a technology that has the…

Paper and discussion history. A mention is not an endorsement.

Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely — HN submission

Thu, 10 Aug 2023 00:36:15 GMT

Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

33 points; 41 discussion replies on HN. Paper and source history. A submission is not an endorsement.

Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely — HN submission

Tue, 13 Jun 2023 06:35:10 GMT

Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

3 points; 4 discussion replies on HN. Paper and source history. A submission is not an endorsement.

Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely — HN submission

Wed, 07 Jun 2023 09:12:18 GMT

Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

2 points; 1 discussion reply on HN. Paper and source history. A submission is not an endorsement.