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arXiv:2209.06899cs.LG

Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples

Lisa P. Argyle, Ethan C. Busby, Nancy Fulda, Joshua Gubler, Christopher Rytting, David Wingate

Abstract

We propose and explore the possibility that language models can be studied as effective proxies for specific human sub-populations in social science research. Practical and research applications of artificial intelligence tools have sometimes been limited by problematic biases (such as racism or sexism), which are often treated as uniform properties of the models. We show that the "algorithmic bias" within one such tool -- the GPT-3 language model -- is instead both fine-grained and demographically correlated, meaning that proper conditioning will cause it to accurately emulate response distributions from a wide variety of human subgroups. We term this property "algorithmic fidelity" and explore its extent in GPT-3. We create "silicon samples" by conditioning the model on thousands of socio-demographic backstories from real human participants in multiple large surveys conducted in the United States. We then compare the silicon and human samples to demonstrate that the information contained in GPT-3 goes far beyond surface similarity. It is nuanced, multifaceted, and reflects the complex interplay between ideas, attitudes, and socio-cultural context that characterize human attitudes. We suggest that language models with sufficient algorithmic fidelity thus constitute a novel and powerful tool to advance understanding of humans and society across a variety of disciplines.

arXiv comments
Journal reference
DOI
doi:10.1017/pan.2023.2
Subjects
cs.LGMachine Learning cs.CLComputation and Language

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Linked by 2 identifiable commenters in 8 comments across 7 threads, from Oct 2022 to Aug 2024. Found in 5 HN submissions from Oct 2022 to Mar 2024. Open submission discussions.

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Discussed in comments7 threads

    • Reminds me of: > Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples > We propose and explore the possibility that language models can be studied as effective proxies for specific human sub populations in social science research. Practical and research applications…

      visargaView on HNParent context

    • >The difference is that an LLM isn't 1000 different intelligences. It's one intelligence, being asked to pretend to be 1,000 different people. No it's not. It does no good for a Language Model to configure a global persona. It needs to be able to predict text from wildly varying…

      famouswafflesView on HNParent context

    • Large Language Models as Simulated Economic Agents: What Can We Learn from Homo Silicus? (https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.07543) Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples (https://arxiv.org/abs/2209.06899) There's been some research in this vain. To answer…

      famouswafflesView on HNParent context

    • Is it ? What little research we have of this kind of phenomena points towards this being very valid. Large Language Models as Simulated Economic Agents: What Can We Learn from Homo Silicus? (https://arxiv.org/abs/2301.07543) Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate…

      famouswafflesView on HNParent context

    • Related paper: Out of One, Many: Using Language Models to Simulate Human Samples > We show that the "algorithmic bias" within one such tool -- the GPT 3 language model -- is instead both fine grained and demographically correlated, meaning that proper conditioning will cause it…

      visargaView on HNParent context

    • Funny thing - the forum works like a language model. It doesn't have one set personality, but it can generate from a distribution of people. The language model can generate from a distribution of prompts, which might be persona descriptions. > Out of One, Many: Using Language…

      visargaView on HNParent context

    • GPT-3 has learned many identities, it's not lacking a perspective but quite the opposite, it has too many perspectives and you never know who you're talking to. Unless you prompt it with an identity. Recently it was used to run "in silico sampling" [1], a virtual poll where the…

      visargaView on HNParent context

    • > How? This is absolutely impossible. It is possible to use GPT-3 to impersonate someone. You give it a profile and it assumes the personality, then speaks from that point of view replicating its biases with uncanny ability. So what they did was to create a simulated poll using…

      visargaView on HNParent context

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