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arXiv:2208.09563stat.AP

On the Probability of Magnus Carlsen reaching 2900

Sohan Bendre, Shiva Maharaj, Nick Polson, Vadim Sokolov

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Abstract

How likely is it that Magnus Carlsen will achieve an Elo rating of $2900$? This has been a goal of Magnus and is of great current interest to the chess community. Our paper uses probabilistic methods to address this question. The probabilistic properties of Elo's rating system have long been studied, and we provide an application of such methods. By applying a Brownian motion model of Stern as a simple tool we provide answers. Our research also has fundamental bearing on the choice of the $K$-factor used in Elo's system for GrandMaster (GM) chess play. Finally, we conclude with a discussion of policy issues involved with the choice of $K$-factor.

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stat.APApplications (Statistics) math.PRProbability

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  1. What are Magnus Carlsen's chances of reaching 2900? 1 comment

    • It's worth noting that one of the authors of the cited paper [1] (Nick Polson) is infamous for claiming (incorrectly) a proof of the Riemann hypothesis [2]. This case is somewhat strange because he's not the usual mathematical crank; he's actually a quite well-recognized…

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