Forecasting AI Progress: Evidence from a Survey of Machine Learning Researchers · HackerPapers discussionshttps://hackerpaper.kaipfister.de/p/2206.04132/Collected HN comments and submissions linking this paper.enMon, 02 Nov 2026 11:16:22 GMTForecasting AI Progress: Evidence from a Survey of Machine Learning Researchers — mentioned by Isinlorhttps://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=32526219urn:hackerpapers:mention:2206.04132:32526219Fri, 19 Aug 2022 21:34:48 GMT<p>The survey [0], fielded in late 2019 (before GPT-3, Chinchilla, Flamingo, PaLM, Codex, Dall-E, Minerva etc.), elicited forecasts for near-term AI development milestones and high- or human-level machine intelligence, defined as when machines are able to accomplish every or almost every task humans are able to do currently. They sample 296 researchers who presented at two important AI/ML conferences ICML and NeurIPS. Results from their 2019 survey show that, in aggregate, AI/ML researchers surveyed placed a 50% likelihood of human-level machine intelligence being achieved by 2060. The results…</p><p><a href="https://hackerpaper.kaipfister.de/p/2206.04132/">Paper and discussion history</a>. A mention is not an endorsement.</p>cs.CY