Forecasting timelines of quantum computing · HackerPapers discussions

Forecasting timelines of quantum computing — mentioned by rhaps0dy

Tue, 10 Dec 2024 00:18:14 GMT

Thank you for the explanation. It's still an upwards update on the qubit timelines of https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.05045 (see Fig. 7), but not by an insane amount. We've realized their 95% expectation of qubit progress (1 logical qubit) for 2026, in 2024.92 instead. Which to be clear is quite a bit faster than expected in 2020, but still within the realm of plausible stuff.

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Forecasting timelines of quantum computing — mentioned by jessriedel

Wed, 29 May 2024 06:28:34 GMT

> I thought the error rate has stayed pretty exponential in terms of the number of physical qubits needed to express a logical qubit There is finite a threshold error rate (roughly 0.1-1%) at which you can produce a single logical qubit with an unbounded number of physical qubits (infinite overhead). For error rates below the threshold, the overhead becomes much less. People expect overheads in the thousands. See Fig. 1 in our paper. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.05045 > and it’s not actually known if we’re any closer on that metric vs other more easily achieved metrics. We are getting lower…

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Forecasting timelines of quantum computing — mentioned by jessriedel

Mon, 10 Jul 2023 22:08:25 GMT

At least as of 2020, it looked like both qubit counts and two-qubit gate quality were improving exponentially, and our naive extrapolation said RSA 2048 wouldn't get cracked by 2039 at 95% confidence. https://arxiv.org/abs/2009.05045 As far as I can tell, this website suggests that two-qubit gate infidelity has continued to improve exponentially, although it's hard to tell if these are reliable datapoints. https://metriq.info/Task/38 Because there's typically an engineering tension between qubit count and gate quality, what you want to track is something like quantum volume, which looks to be…

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Forecasting timelines of quantum computing — mentioned by bwesterb

Tue, 05 Jul 2022 20:08:44 GMT

It's hard to say. Here is a great paper that tries to answer this question. https://arxiv.org/pdf/2009.05045v1.pdf See Figure 11. Optimistically 15 years. Pessimistically 35 years. But anything can happen.

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Forecasting timelines of quantum computing — HN submission

Tue, 15 Sep 2020 14:40:12 GMT

Forecasting Timelines of Quantum Computing

2 points; 0 discussion replies on HN. Paper and source history. A submission is not an endorsement.