Time-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity · HackerPapers discussionshttps://hackerpaper.kaipfister.de/p/2008.08142/Collected HN comments and submissions linking this paper.enMon, 02 Nov 2026 11:16:22 GMTTime-dependent heterogeneity leads to transient suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic, not herd immunity — mentioned by timrhttps://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24339190urn:hackerpapers:mention:2008.08142:24339190Tue, 01 Sep 2020 06:56:05 GMT<p>&quot;That&#x27;s 330 million people, 65% exposed, and 1% death rate.&quot; These are questionable assumptions. Herd immunity thresholds seem to be closer to 20-40%: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2008.08142.pdf https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v... Moreover, fatality rates are not 1%. Current best estimates are ~0.6%, overall, with a strong dependence on age: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.08.24.20180851v... https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.23.20160895v... https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3... The young (i.e. those under 30), in…</p><p><a href="https://hackerpaper.kaipfister.de/p/2008.08142/">Paper and discussion history</a>. A mention is not an endorsement.</p>q-bio.PE