On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables — mentioned by concinds

Sat, 02 Jul 2022 09:57:32 GMT

This is a complete misunderstanding of the problem. I invite you to read Taleb (I'm not trying to sound like a fanboy; but his ideas are literally the utterly common-sense conclusions you'll reach if you study complexity science as applied to the financial system; i.e. they are objectively and necessarily true). I'll try to present a very simplified but rigorous case: 1. There's commercial banks (that take consumer/corporate deposit & give out loans), and investment banks that arbitrage the markets. If you allow banks to fulfill both commercial and investment roles, consumer deposits are at…

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On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables · HackerPapers discussions

On Single Point Forecasts for Fat-Tailed Variables — mentioned by concinds