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arXiv:2005.01167physics.soc-ph

The COVID-19 pandemic as experienced by the individual

Patrick Garland, Dave Babbitt, Maksym Bondarenko, Alessandro Sorichetta, Andrew J. Tatem, Oliver Johnson

Abstract

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has progressed with varying degrees of intensity in individual countries, suggesting it is important to analyse factors that vary between them. We study measures of `population-weighted density', which capture density as perceived by a randomly chosen individual. These measures of population density can significantly explain variation in the initial rate of spread of COVID-19 between countries within Europe. However, such measures do not explain differences on a global scale, particularly when considering countries in East Asia, or looking later into the epidemics. Therefore, to control for country-level differences in response to COVID-19 we consider the cross-cultural measure of individualism proposed by Hofstede. This score can significantly explain variation in the size of epidemics across Europe, North America, and East Asia. Using both our measure of population-weighted density and the Hofstede score we can significantly explain half the variation in the current size of epidemics across Europe and North America. By controlling for country-level responses to the virus and population density, our analysis of the global incidence of COVID-19 can help focus attention on epidemic control measures that are effective for individual countries.

arXiv comments
Journal reference
DOI
Subjects
physics.soc-phPhysics and Society q-bio.PEPopulations and Evolution stat.APApplications (Statistics)

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  1. The rush to mine lithium could dry up the high Andes 1 comment

    • The population-weighted density of the U.S. is approximately the same as Europe, especially Central and Northern Europe. Standard density, the measure which leads people to believe the U.S. to be sparsely populated, is a useless metric, only suitable for questions like how much…

      wahernView on HNParent context

  2. Homes in 97% of U.S. cities are overvalued, Moody's says 1 comment

    • Total population / total land area is an irrelevant statistic for country comparison. By population-weighted density the United States isn't significantly less dense than Western Europe. Unfortunately, directly comparable, prepared numbers are difficult to come by. The 3 most…

      wahernView on HNParent context

  3. 50,000 deaths so far in the UK's coronavirus epidemic 1 comment

    • You might be interested in this article about lived population density vs rate of spread of COVID-19. https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.01167 Although I do not have enough statistical knowledge to really tell if the author's assessment is correct.

      InfiniteRandView on HNParent context

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