https://hackerpaper.kaipfister.de/p/2004.08658/Collected HN comments and submissions linking this paper.enMon, 02 Nov 2026 11:16:22 GMThttps://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49520235urn:hackerpapers:mention:2004.08658:49520235Tue, 01 Sep 2026 10:51:31 GMT<p>The situation of [2] is crazy. Because both the author of [2] and the people using Ferguson’s model are wrong. And the author&#x27;s advice in one of the last paragraphs of we just need better programmers is also wrong. The issue is that pandemics are extremely fat-tailed in terms of fatalities [3]. You need to collect a shit tons of data to estimate any reliable parameters and no one has time for that. The only thing you need to know is: Is this a super contagious deadly disease? If yes, lock everything down! This is pretty much what they did in Asia, and countries like Vietnam had zero cases for…</p><p><a href="https://hackerpaper.kaipfister.de/p/2004.08658/">Paper and discussion history</a>. A mention is not an endorsement.</p>physics.soc-phhttps://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23214865urn:hackerpapers:submission:2004.08658:23214865Sun, 17 May 2020 19:58:08 GMT<p>Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases</p><p></p><p>3 points; 0 discussion replies on HN. <a href="https://hackerpaper.kaipfister.de/p/2004.08658/">Paper and source history</a>. A submission is not an endorsement.</p>physics.soc-ph