Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID19 Daily Death Count Predictions — mentioned by icelancer

Sun, 19 Apr 2020 20:01:54 GMT

Correct. This appeal to authority fallacy being touted has given us models like the UW-IHME model which is a complete disaster in both results and in methodology. And domestic policy is being based off these models that have two orders of magnitude (at least) of absolute error, and were outside their 95% CI over half of the time. This is unacceptable. https://twitter.com/ElonBachman/status/1248649785655078914 https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.04734

Paper and discussion history. A mention is not an endorsement.

Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID19 Daily Death Count Predictions · HackerPapers discussions

Learning as We Go: An Examination of the Statistical Accuracy of COVID19 Daily Death Count Predictions — mentioned by icelancer