Changepoint analysis of historical battle deaths

Abstract

It has been claimed and disputed that World War II has been followed by a `long peace', an unprecedented decline of war. We conduct a full changepoint analysis of well-documented, publicly-available battle deaths datasets, using new techniques that enable the robust detection of changes in the statistical properties of such heavy-tailed data. We first test and calibrate these techniques. We then demonstrate the existence of changes, independent of data presentation, at around 1910 and 1950 CE, bracketing the World Wars, and around the 1830s and 1994 CE. Our analysis provides a methodology for future investigations and an empirical basis for political and historical discussions.