https://hackerpaper.kaipfister.de/p/1901.08579/Collected HN comments and submissions linking this paper.enMon, 02 Nov 2026 11:16:22 GMThttps://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44927011urn:hackerpapers:mention:1901.08579:44927011Sat, 16 Aug 2025 21:21:01 GMT<p>What are you talking about? This is common knowledge. Median forecasts indicated a 50% probability of AI systems being capable of automating 90% of current human tasks in 25 years and 99% of current human tasks in 50 years[1] The scope of work replaceable by embodied AGI and the speed of AGI saturation of vastly under estimated. The bottle necks are production of a replacement workforce, not retraining human laborers. 1. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.08579</p><p><a href="https://hackerpaper.kaipfister.de/p/1901.08579/">Paper and discussion history</a>. A mention is not an endorsement.</p>cs.CY