https://hackerpaper.kaipfister.de/p/1901.05086/Collected HN comments and submissions linking this paper.enMon, 02 Nov 2026 11:16:22 GMThttps://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=36866212urn:hackerpapers:mention:1901.05086:36866212Tue, 25 Jul 2023 17:38:56 GMT<p>“On the frequency and severity of interstate war” by Aaron Clauset. https://arxiv.org/pdf/1901.05086.pdf Analyzes a claim made in the 1950s by a prominent statistician: the frequency of interstate wars follows a simple Poisson arrival process and their severity follows a simple power-law distribution. He was right, but it’s not clear why. The paper is interesting because it shows how a new bit of knowledge creates a large number of known unknowns from previously unknown unknowns. It also shows statistical magic was very much possible prior to computers.</p><p><a href="https://hackerpaper.kaipfister.de/p/1901.05086/">Paper and discussion history</a>. A mention is not an endorsement.</p>physics.soc-ph