Accurate Prediction of Electoral Outcomes — mentioned by lalaithion

Tue, 18 Dec 2018 05:03:59 GMT

> Practically what this means is that they do not predict a winner or looser but instead report a likelihood Yes, this is good. It means that you can evaluate their accuracy to a greater degree than % of times correct. > Further complicating the issue, these predictions are reported as point estimates They've learned from this, and now show their distribution of results very clearly. However, there's nothing mathematically fraught about reporting a prediction as a point estimate. > The problem is that models are not perfect replicas of the real world and are, as a matter of fact, always wrong…

Paper and discussion history. A mention is not an endorsement.

Accurate Prediction of Electoral Outcomes · HackerPapers discussions

Accurate Prediction of Electoral Outcomes — mentioned by lalaithion