Rational Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin · HackerPapers discussions

Rational Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin — mentioned by User23

Thu, 28 Nov 2024 03:22:42 GMT

It's quite easy. And strip casino pit bosses don't even care. I once personally witnessed one mocking a poor counter by calling out the count for him. And they're right not to. The average person will be ruined with a 10% edge[1], so why should the casinos care if some tourist is managing half a percent? The counter making $600k a year at the tables is a cool story, but as I always joke when I'm at the tables, I do my real gambling with options, cards are just recreation. Where they come down hard is team play. So wonging and such is going to get you backed off, if not trespassed, pretty much…

Paper and discussion history. A mention is not an endorsement.

Rational Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: Observed Betting Patterns on a Biased Coin — mentioned by YossarianFrPrez

Wed, 09 Jun 2021 22:41:29 GMT

It's well worth implementing and testing out the Kelly Criterion. It's super simple to code up in a Jupyter Notebook so that you get to enter an amount to bet each time. When I tried it, I found my own psychology changing as the bets continued, even when I knew the coin's bias. It's a really great demonstration of the difference between a) intellectually knowing the optimal strategy, and b) what actually happens. A bet on a biased coin paradigm was actually tried in the real world with finance professionals, with a cap on the maximum payout. The results are described here…

Paper and discussion history. A mention is not an endorsement.