arXiv:1505.05424stat.ML
Weight Uncertainty in Neural Networks
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Abstract
We introduce a new, efficient, principled and backpropagation-compatible algorithm for learning a probability distribution on the weights of a neural network, called Bayes by Backprop. It regularises the weights by minimising a compression cost, known as the variational free energy or the expected lower bound on the marginal likelihood. We show that this principled kind of regularisation yields comparable performance to dropout on MNIST classification. We then demonstrate how the learnt uncertainty in the weights can be used to improve generalisation in non-linear regression problems, and how this weight uncertainty can be used to drive the exploration-exploitation trade-off in reinforcement learning.
Causality is a bit harder to integrate with current machine learning models as it's hard even with standard probabilistic graphical models. On the other hand, there has been a lot of work integrating deep neural networks with probabilistic models. For example, the variational…
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