On the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts · HackerPapers discussions

On the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts — mentioned by leto_ii

Thu, 22 Feb 2024 21:00:50 GMT

Ok, the guy is not some Fields medalist, so it depends what you mean by math chops, but here are a few of his papers published in respectable journals that have non negligible math content: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03784... (free at https://arxiv.org/pdf/1707.01370.pdf) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03784... https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03784... (free at https://arxiv.org/pdf/1405.1791.pdf) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S03784... (free at https://arxiv.org/pdf/1505.04722.pdf)…

Paper and discussion history. A mention is not an endorsement.

On the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts — mentioned by concinds

Sat, 02 Jul 2022 09:57:32 GMT

This is a complete misunderstanding of the problem. I invite you to read Taleb (I'm not trying to sound like a fanboy; but his ideas are literally the utterly common-sense conclusions you'll reach if you study complexity science as applied to the financial system; i.e. they are objectively and necessarily true). I'll try to present a very simplified but rigorous case: 1. There's commercial banks (that take consumer/corporate deposit & give out loans), and investment banks that arbitrage the markets. If you allow banks to fulfill both commercial and investment roles, consumer deposits are at…

Paper and discussion history. A mention is not an endorsement.

On the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts — mentioned by qwtel

Fri, 09 Mar 2018 10:52:13 GMT

for this is be a valid argument, the sample mean has to be good estimator for the "true" mean, which is the case only for thin-tailed random variables. unfortunately, violence in humans is verifiably fat-tailed (short bursts of violence account for the vast majority of deaths). here other techniques for estimating the mean have to be used. this has been done by cirillo and taleb [1], and the results are sobering: there is no evidence for a drop in violence. in fact, there isn't sufficient data for any kind of claim (intuition: major conflicts account for the majority of deaths; the…

Paper and discussion history. A mention is not an endorsement.

On the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts — HN submission

Wed, 22 Feb 2017 13:49:07 GMT

Violence Has Not Been Declining Over Time

30 points; 21 discussion replies on HN. Paper and source history. A submission is not an endorsement.

On the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts — HN submission

Mon, 30 Nov 2015 21:08:29 GMT

On the statistical properties and tail risk of violent conflicts

2 points; 0 discussion replies on HN. Paper and source history. A submission is not an endorsement.