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arXiv:1410.5787q-fin.GN

The Precautionary Principle (with Application to the Genetic Modification of Organisms)

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Rupert Read, Raphael Douady, Joseph Norman, Yaneer Bar-Yam

Abstract

We present a non-naive version of the Precautionary (PP) that allows us to avoid paranoia and paralysis by confining precaution to specific domains and problems. PP is intended to deal with uncertainty and risk in cases where the absence of evidence and the incompleteness of scientific knowledge carries profound implications and in the presence of risks of "black swans", unforeseen and unforeseable events of extreme consequence. We formalize PP, placing it within the statistical and probabilistic structure of ruin problems, in which a system is at risk of total failure, and in place of risk we use a formal fragility based approach. We make a central distinction between 1) thin and fat tails, 2) Local and systemic risks and place PP in the joint Fat Tails and systemic cases. We discuss the implications for GMOs (compared to Nuclear energy) and show that GMOs represent a public risk of global harm (while harm from nuclear energy is comparatively limited and better characterized). PP should be used to prescribe severe limits on GMOs.

arXiv comments
Journal reference
DOI
Subjects
q-fin.GNGeneral Finance physics.soc-phPhysics and Society

On Hacker News

Linked by 8 identifiable commenters in 9 comments across 8 threads, from Nov 2014 to Mar 2023. Found in 1 HN submission from Oct 2023 to Oct 2023. Open submission discussions.

Comments linking this paper, per year.

Discussed in comments8 threads

  1. Italy moves to ban lab-grown meat to protect food heritage 1 comment
  2. Deformities Alarm Scientists Racing to Rewrite Animal DNA 1 comment

    • "GM foods are arguably no more dangerous than any massively engineered foods " This may be your opinion. While GM foods are not per see dangerous, the long tail risk is tremendous, exactly because you can not tell what a gene is going to do in another organism. Take my word for…

      jayalphaView on HNParent context

  3. EU agrees on total ban of bee-harming pesticides 1 comment

    • I consider this good news. May I recommend an article by Taleb: The Precautionary Principle https://arxiv.org/pdf/1410.5787.pdf Contrary to some of the posters here, I don't think there is STRONG evidence that neonicotinoids are causing this but there is some evidence. Bases on…

      jk2323View on HNParent context

  4. Why I’m quitting GMO research 1 comment

    • It seems like Taleb et al captured the nebulous fears many people have around GMOs fairly rigorously with the "Precautionary Principle"[1]. I see some people attempt to refute that paper with specific evidence of safety for some GMOs, but have not seen a work that deals…

      binarypaeanView on HNParent context

  5. We’re Scientists, Moms, And We Avoid Non-GMO Products 1 comment

    • Thanks for providing this. Useful info. That PDF in turn references "The Precautionary Principle (with Application to the Genetic Modification of Organisms)" from 2014. https://arxiv.org/abs/1410.5787

      grzmView on HNParent context

  6. Brazil declares emergency after 2,400 babies are born with brain damage 2 comments

    • A few points http://www.nature.com/news/caution-urged-over-editing-dna-in... http://arstechnica.com/science/2015/03/new-dna-construct-can... http://arxiv.org/pdf/1410.5787.pdf You release not only a gene but a technology into the wild. This is something that can not be undone.…

      tiatiaView on HNParent context

    • I think one of the major reasons for our disagreement is you perceive that there is an unlimited risk with GMO organisms - the paper you linked to explicitly states this [1]. Quoting from it: Ecologically, in addition to intentional cultivation, GMOs have the propensity to…

      danieltillettView on HNParent context

  7. The Mathiness of Nassim Nicholas Taleb 1 comment

    • That's most of his writing though: throw a lot of complicated words at the reader and hope some naive ones start seeing mystique depth in his thought. His writing is incoherent though. Even reading abstract of his paper [1]: >>We present a non-naive version of the Precautionary…

      bluecalmView on HNParent context

  8. The Unbelievable Skepticism of the Amazing Randi 1 comment

    • >even though the scientific consensus is that GMO crops are no more dangerous than non-GMO crops. * "The State of the Science : Most of the evidence for the safety of genetically modified food crops comes from studies that only look at short-term effects … and from information…

      pellaView on HNParent context

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