Bayesian Prediction for The Winds of Winter

Abstract

Predictions are made for the number of chapters told from the point of view of each character in the next two novels in George R. R. Martin's \emph{A Song of Ice and Fire} series by fitting a random effects model to a matrix of point-of-view chapters in the earlier novels using Bayesian methods. {\textbf{SPOILER WARNING: readers who have not read all five existing novels in the series should not read further, as major plot points will be spoiled.}}