arXiv:1405.5924cs.SI
Prediction of Foreign Box Office Revenues Based on Wikipedia Page Activity
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Abstract
A number of attempts have been made at estimating the amount of box office revenue a film will generate during its opening weekend. One such attempt makes extensive use of the number of views a film's Wikipedia page has attracted as a predictor of box office success in the United States. In this paper we develop a similar method of approximating box office success. We test our method using 325 films from the United States and then apply it to films from four foreign markets: Japan (95 films), Australia (118 films), Germany (105 films), and the United Kingdom (141 films). We find the technique to have inconsistent performance in these nations. While it makes relatively accurate predictions for the United States and Australia, its predictions in the remaining markets are not accurate enough to be useful.
Aside from carefully constructed surveys, the best indicator of US box office success that I have found is Wikipedia page views http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.... Outside the US it's a harder problem http://arxiv.org/abs/1405.5924
rcptView on HNParent context