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arXiv:1401.4208cs.SI

Epidemiological modeling of online social network dynamics

John Cannarella, Joshua A. Spechler

Abstract

The last decade has seen the rise of immense online social networks (OSNs) such as MySpace and Facebook. In this paper we use epidemiological models to explain user adoption and abandonment of OSNs, where adoption is analogous to infection and abandonment is analogous to recovery. We modify the traditional SIR model of disease spread by incorporating infectious recovery dynamics such that contact between a recovered and infected member of the population is required for recovery. The proposed infectious recovery SIR model (irSIR model) is validated using publicly available Google search query data for "MySpace" as a case study of an OSN that has exhibited both adoption and abandonment phases. The irSIR model is then applied to search query data for "Facebook," which is just beginning to show the onset of an abandonment phase. Extrapolating the best fit model into the future predicts a rapid decline in Facebook activity in the next few years.

arXiv comments
11 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables
Journal reference
DOI
Subjects
cs.SISocial and Information Networks physics.soc-phPhysics and Society

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Linked by 5 identifiable commenters in 5 comments across 3 threads, from Jan 2014 to Apr 2016. Found in 5 HN submissions from Jan 2014 to Mar 2018. Open submission discussions.

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Discussed in comments3 threads

  1. The Worst Thing That Could Happen to Facebook Is Already Happening 1 comment
  2. Facebook may lose 80% of users by 2017, say Princeton researchers 2 comments

    • Here's the direct link to the Princeton study cited in the article: http://arxiv.org/pdf/1401.4208v1.pdf

      prjohnsonView on HNParent context

    • The conclusive headline (use of the word will) is the Guardian's editorial decision, not used by the scientists, if that's the main objection. The article has a more measured statement: "Extrapolating the best fit model into the future suggests that Facebook will undergo a rapid…

      ronaldxView on HNParent context

  3. Facebook May Lose 80% of Its User Base by 2017 2 comments

    • http://arxiv.org/pdf/1401.4208v1.pdf Full study for anyone interested

      doubt_meView on HNParent context

    • This study is based on a couple of very shaky assumptions. The first is that they're modeling the decline of Facebook on the decline of MySpace, and assuming that their traffic/popularity curves are similar. I think the two sites are completely different animals and all…

      chazView on HNParent context

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