The Future Has Thicker Tails than the Past: Model Error As Branching Counterfactuals · HackerPapers discussionshttps://hackerpaper.kaipfister.de/p/1209.2298/Collected HN comments and submissions linking this paper.enMon, 02 Nov 2026 11:16:22 GMTThe Future Has Thicker Tails than the Past: Model Error As Branching Counterfactuals — mentioned by pizzahttps://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=15275222urn:hackerpapers:mention:1209.2298:15275222Mon, 18 Sep 2017 12:26:36 GMT<p>I once heard someone say something like &quot;a molecule is &#x27;biological&#x27; if it describes the environment [for its organism].&quot; The key takeaway from my crude recollection of the quote is that &quot;information&quot; is a kind of master theory (which, tangentially, makes it a meaningless theory - the hypothesis &quot;this event occurs because of information&quot; is true 100% of the time). Let&#x27;s suppose for the purpose of a thought experiment that abiogenesis occurred because of specific conditions during or shortly after the Big Bang. Increasing entropy is the direction of the arrow of time, but there would be no such…</p><p><a href="https://hackerpaper.kaipfister.de/p/1209.2298/">Paper and discussion history</a>. A mention is not an endorsement.</p>q-fin.RM