Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress — mentioned by kken

Wed, 25 Sep 2013 19:27:00 GMT

Solar power has something that has been proven to be an universial law for all manufacturing: The manufacturing cost decreases is a power function of cumulative production, also known as wright's law. This is a very interesting paper about this concept: http://arxiv.org/abs/1207.1463 Moore's law is special because it relies on physical scaling (See Dennard Scaling) of the product. The transistors get smaller with each technology iteration, resulting in a physical correspondence to the economical law. Something like this does not exist for solar cells and most other products.

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Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress · HackerPapers discussions

Statistical Basis for Predicting Technological Progress — mentioned by kken