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arXiv:1101.5635physics.soc-ph

How persistent is civilization growth?

Timothy J. Garrett

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Abstract

In a recent study (Garrett, 2011), I described theoretical arguments and empirical evidence showing how civilization evolution might be considered from a purely physical basis. One implication is that civilization exhibits the property of persistence in its growth. Here, this argument is elaborated further, and specific near-term forecasts are provided for key economic variables and anthropogenic CO2 emission rates at global scales. Absent some external shock, civilization wealth, energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions will continue to grow exponentially at an average rate of about 2.3% per year.

arXiv comments
Submitted to Climatic Change, January 26, 2011
Journal reference
DOI
Subjects
physics.soc-phPhysics and Society nlin.AOAdaptation and Self-Organizing Systems physics.ao-phAtmospheric and Oceanic Physics

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  1. All poverty is energy poverty 1 comment

    • There's excellent theoretical and empirical support for this idea How persistent is civilization growth? (2011) https://arxiv.org/abs/1101.5635 Can we predict long-run economic growth? (2012) https://arxiv.org/abs/1211.3102 Modes of growth in dynamic systems (2012)…

      beefmanView on HNParent context

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